Political instability, civil unrest top business hazards in Kenya

Political instability and civil unrest have been ranked as the top hazards with the potential to disrupt economic activities in Kenya over the coming year.

This is according to the 2025 World Security Report.

With the Gen Z-led protests still fresh in the minds of Kenyans, security chiefs say political instability stands at 45 per cent, while civil unrest was rated at 43 per cent.

The survey involved 2,352 chief security officers in 31 countries at medium and large, global companies whose total revenue exceeded $25 trillion (Sh3,250 trillion).

The report also incorporates the crucial perspectives of 200 global institutional investors managing over one trillion dollars in assets.

According to the security chiefs, the twin hazards often manifest through protests or demonstrations, with 21 per cent of Kenyan companies expected to be impacted over the next year, the highest rate in the region.

Such violence, the report notes, is aggravated by the swift spread of misinformation and disinformation, which were largely at play during Kenya’s violent demonstrations in the last two years.

Over 73 per cent of the security officers reported that their companies have been targeted by misinformation or disinformation campaigns.

“Concerns are growing that societies are becoming more violent, and this is spilling over to affect the people and assets of businesses,” states the report.

“Social and political polarisation can be exacerbated by digital activity where misinformation and disinformation are spread and amplified at breakneck speed. This is now recognised as a serious threat.”

While the sharing of both inaccurate information and deliberate false narratives is increasingly being linked to physical security incidents in companies, senior company executives have become specific targets of such threats, according to 42 per cent of the respondents.

According to the report, 79 per cent of global businesses will prioritise investments in new technology, with physical security budgets set to increase, especially to protect their senior executives.

“Global institutional investors place significant importance on executive protection, with a resounding 97 per cent saying it is important that companies they invest in provide this to help protect senior leaders,” says the report.

“Executives are regarded as critical, with over two-thirds (68 per cent) of investors stating that leadership accounts for 30 per cent or more of the value of the companies in which they invest.”

Emerging threats

Despite the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance physical security effectiveness and efficiency, the security chiefs agree that humans remain the backbone of the security industry, with 81 per cent saying the emerging threats are exerting greater demands on frontline security professionals (askaris) than there were five years ago.

Other measures companies intend to make include infrastructure upgrades, with 83 per cent making this a top priority. Another 71 per cent will prioritise risk assessments, while 66 per cent of the businesses look to tighten regulatory compliance.

The findings were commissioned by Allied Universal, the world’s leading security and facility services provider, and its international business, G4S.

“Political and civil unrest can have an immediate and costly impact on businesses and investor confidence,” said Laurence Okelo, managing director of G4S Kenya.

“Security leaders are preparing to bolster their physical security programmes in response to their concerns. The predicted easing of economic instability provides some room for optimism, but companies must continue building resilience through security upgrades, workforce safety, and contingency planning.”

Hospitality sectors

In Kenya, the economic losses stemming from the widely-publicised Gen-Z-led protests have been significant, with retail and hospitality sectors particularly affected.

As protests become more destructive, diplomatic missions warn their country’s citizens to give the country a wide berth, affecting the flow of tourists and depriving the economy of much-needed foreign exchange. The Kenyan security chiefs interviewed in the survey underlined the costly fallout from such incidents, adding that nearly half of local companies reported revenue losses as a result of the protests. As a result, more companies in Kenya than anywhere else in Sub-Saharan Africa also experienced increased insurance costs.

Analysts put the losses associated with the Gen Z protests in 2024 between Sh3 billion and Sh6 billion. Globally, company executives said that physical security incidents result in wiping off 10 per cent of their firms’ revenues.

Such security incidents could lower investor bottom lines, with institutional investors warning that a major security incident could reduce the value of a listed company by as much as 32 per cent. 

“Consistent with the 2023 findings, fraud is the dominating internal and external threat across the region, which can be tied back to economic instability. Despite these challenges, there are plenty of opportunities across the region, and it is encouraging to see the planned investment in smart security infrastructure and AI-powered video surveillance,” said Christo Terblanche, regional president of G4S in Africa. 

However, the report says the coming year will also see economic instability fall to 41 per cent, down from 52 per cent last year, although fraud, almost always a financially motivated crime, is still expected to be the leading external threat Kenyan companies will face next year.