Why there is more than meets the eye in Africa Forward Summit

The two-day Africa Forward Summit, co-hosted by President William Ruto and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron in Nairobi, ends today.

President Ruto said before the summit: “Our shared objective is clear: to unlock capital, scale innovation, deepen trade and investment linkages, and create inclusive growth pathways that are resilient, sustainable, and African-led.” 

Macron adds: “Our priority is clear: to step up investments and strengthen our cooperation programmes in healthcare, education, food, digital technology, energy and infrastructures.” 

This summit reflects the emerging shift from aid to trade and investment. Both presidents did not use the word aid in their welcoming speech on the website.  Ruto’s welcome speech on the website is 491 words, Macron’s is 247 words. 

This summit is unique in a number of ways; let us explore. One, it’s pioneering, bringing French and English-speaking countries together. Countries traditionally remained tied to their former colonial masters in trade, culture, and mannerisms. Except for Rwanda, which shifted to English and joined the Commonwealth, most countries remained “loyal” to their coloniser. It’s a psychological and social mystery how countries developed an affinity for their colonisers. That must be a case study in social and psychological engineering.

Ghana and Nigeria did something unusual for former UK colonies: they shifted from driving on the left to the right. That is something we should consider, three-quarters of the world keeps right. 

We should see the French Kenya summit against this historical backdrop. Could the French be making Kenya a lynchpin after losing Rwanda in Eastern Africa? Remember the rest of the French-speaking African countries; DR Congo and Burundi are now members of the mainly English East African Community. 

This summit comes against another backdrop, the French losing their influence in the Sahel through coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. France has withdrawn its military from Senegal, the Ivory Coast and Chad. Will East Africa, read Kenya, balance that out?

Does France have excess military capacity?  Remember the envisaged presence of the French military in Kenya against the backdrop of British troops?

Some conspiracy theorists argue that the French military presence in Kenya is about the 2027 polls.  Are the French more likely to intervene in a political crisis than the Britons? Again, refer to the French record in West Africa. The 

The French, to be fair, don’t have a good record in West Africa. And they bring that fear to Kenya. They have to work hard to convince the populace that they will be different.

That is perhaps why they are using creative arts, the soft approach. Unlike United States (US) or Nigerian movies, French music or movies are not well known, may be language barrier?

How did Indian movies penetrate the Kenyan Market?  Key target areas in the summit include: peace and security, a big factor in this region. Energy transition and green industrialisation; the Kenya Kwanza government is big on that. 

Reform of the international financial architecture has been another of President Ruto’s focuses. How will the US react to that? Sustainable and value-added agriculture is another low-hanging fruit. Artificial intelligence and digital transformation appeal to the youth.

The blue economy has been neglected despite our 500km of coastline. Check how much fish is eaten from the ocean. With all complaints about the Social Health Authority (SHA), health systems, and sovereignty are areas both parties would be eager to see succeed. 

How will France be different from other players like China, the United Kingdom or the United States?  If they can improve the lives of ordinary Kenyans through investments and jobs, they will gain favour with Kenyans.

Curiously, the French have a foot on the door. French is taught in several schools in Kenya. We know enough about French wine and perfumes.

But we don’t “see” France the way we see China in big infrastructure projects like SGR or superhighway.

Homegrown movies

By the way, what was discussed behind closed doors on the cancelled French contract for the Rironi-Mau Summit Road?  Will French use this Chinese approach or soft like Americans with their services? They could even use the Nigerian approach with religion and homegrown movies. Kenya has been open to engagement with as many countries as possible. France will compete with other countries like China, the USA, Türkiye, UAE, India, Japan, South Africa, and Nigeria, among others. What will distinguish the French entry into Kenya?

Most important is whether France will ensure that the relationship with Kenya is a win-win. We may not have our schools taught in French soon, or parliament proceedings in French.

But French influence in Kenya will grow slowly, competing with others who had a fast mover advantage and against rising African confidence.

With the scramble for African resources, mostly critical minerals, and echoes of Berlin conferences, France needs to exorcise the ghosts of the past and help Kenya build a more equal and inclusive society; what Western civilisation preaches.  We shall wait and see; all we can say for now is  Bienvenue.