Why Oburu Oginga is facing a turbulent start at ODM helm

It is a rough start for new ODM leader Oburu Oginga as he begins to steer a party facing an uncertain future following the death of its founder and leader, Raila Odinga, last month.

Interestingly, Oburu’s leadership also faces criticism from within his own family, including his niece Winnie Odinga, who has questioned his ability to safeguard ODM’s place in the broad-based government.

The new party leader will also seek to unify ODM nationally, where the party has become a Tower of Babel, with leaders speaking in different voices regarding its pact with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

During the party’s 20-year anniversary in Mombasa, it became clear that three factions exist within ODM over its relationship with President William Ruto now and ahead of the 2027 election.

“ODM experts in government” and some party officials, including chairperson Gladys Wanga, said the party should remain in the broad-based arrangement and support Ruto’s re-election in 2027.

The second faction, consisting of Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Siaya Governor James Orengo and Winnie, insisted that the ODM–UDA pact became obsolete after Raila’s death.

The third faction, led by Deputy Party Leaders Abdulswamad Nassir and Godfrey Osotsi, supported maintaining the pact with UDA until 2027, arguing that Raila had not pronounced himself on the next election.

Oburu appeared to support the third faction, to the annoyance of the second group, which has demanded that he convene the National Delegates Conference (NDC) to discuss the party’s future with UDA and its leadership.

Founder’s dinner

However, the Siaya Senator defended his leadership, promising to make the party more vibrant and popular as the General Election approaches, and insisting that he will not allow ODM to be swallowed by other parties.

“We want to strengthen the party to be more popular than it is now. We will not allow the party to be swallowed by anybody,” said Oburu, adding that ODM will remain in government until 2027.

Oburu also appears to be under pressure from Ruto and his allies to back the President’s re-election. Ruto attended the ODM founding members’ dinner on Saturday night.

Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Affairs Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho said ODM members in the broad-based Cabinet would not allow themselves to be used as sacrificial lambs or be pushed out of the party.

“Msifikirie mtatutoa chambo au kafara. Nawaambia wengine wetu damu yetu ni moto. Ukileta tunaleta, ukitukujia tunakukujia. Mkitufukuza tutawafukuza.” (Do not think you can use us as sacrificial lambs. If you attempt to fight us, we will fight back and push you out.)

Party’s future

Joho appeared to be responding to Winnie, Raila’s daughter, who said it was time for the party’s NDC to be convened to elect the next ODM leader, one who would guarantee and protect the party’s interests in the broad-based government.

Winnie said the broad-based agreement lapsed after Raila’s death and urged the NDC to discuss the party’s future.

“There is a need for an NDC for people to choose who will manage the broad-based government relationship,” said Winnie, who is a member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA).

Oburu accused an unnamed clique in ODM of betraying Raila’s vision and plans, adding that he had worked with his brother for 80 years and could not betray him.

“I’ve heard what my daughter (Winnie) has said, that we should scout for a leader to replace Raila in the broad-based government. I want to tell her that we will talk at home,” said Oburu.

Babu Owino also questioned Oburu’s rise to party leadership and called for proper elections to pick party officials, saying, “I can also be a party leader.”

On Wednesday, Oburu was ratified by the ODM National Governing Council (NGC) as the party leader, officially stepping into the gigantic shoes of his younger brother, Raila.

Pillow talk

Oburu admitted that steering ODM is a daunting task, saying: “My consolation is that there are trusted people around me who will help me rise up if I fall down.”

“I will carry the shield and spear you have given me as a sign of leadership, and if I fall down, you should help me to stand up. With your support I will deliver,” he said.

However, those trusted allies may be few, going by the political undertones dominating speeches by senior ODM members and even his own family.

Winnie fired the first salvo, accusing some ODM leaders of “scheming at night to sell the party.”

“There are those walking with us during the day, but at night they are trying to sell the party. This will not happen. ODM was not born in a boardroom nor was it made in a bedroom, so its future will not be discussed in pillow talk,” she said.

Although she did not name those behind the alleged plot, Winnie said ODM has been the heartbeat of Kenyans for 20 years and would not abandon them. “ODM was born from the protests. It was raised in resistance, and the people of ODM have time and time again bled, sweated and shed tears for this country.

“We are sorry that we don’t always get it right, but we will never be sorry for being inconvenient. They call us a party of goons, but what we are doing is nation building,” she said.

Orengo echoed Winnie’s concerns, accusing some ODM leaders of behaving as if the party needs President Ruto more than he needs the party.

Orengo said Ruto was at his weakest point and is desperate for ODM’s support in the 2027 election.

“It is Ruto that needs ODM because he has failed. I’m not afraid to say so,” said Orengo.

By-elections

He said the party should be strengthened to survive beyond the 2027 election.

“The liberation parties in Africa are dying. In Tanzania CCM is dead, in Uganda UPC died, and in Zambia UNIP died. They died because they forgot the people,” said Orengo.

He added: “I ask the leadership of ODM not to forget the people. ODM is a party of the people, by the people, for the people. ODM cannot be the party of the broad-based.”

Oburu has promised to follow in his brother’s footsteps in steering the party to either form or be part of the government after the 2027 election.

Beyond questions about his leadership, Oburu is also expected to guide the party through the 27 November by-elections.

Wanga said that since the party has strong institutions, they will build on what they inherited to honour Raila.

“ODM is a movement built on a firm foundation,” said Wanga.

Osotsi urged ODM leaders to exercise discipline and warned members against advancing the agenda of other parties.

He advised party members to remain loyal and protect ODM from intruders.

Kisii Governor Simba Arati said the party has leaders capable of winning the presidency in the next election.

“We have qualified leaders here who can win the election in 2027. What we need is to remain loyal to the party and disciplined,” said Arati.