Why many ex-African presidents live in fear

On Tuesday, September 30, a military court in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) handed former President Joseph Kabila a death sentence in absentia for alleged treason and war crimes.

Kabila, who has denied the accusations, was not in court and had no legal representation.

The verdict has now rekindled an old debate across Africa: what becomes of powerful leaders once they leave the fortified palaces in the ivory tower that is the presidency. Their survival while in office depends on the military, State coffers, and the levers of political influence.

A peaceful exit is always on the cards. But for many, especially when rivals take power, it is rarely assured.

History is littered with former leaders who thought they could manage their succession only to be betrayed by those they supported to win office.

“They want to manage their succession for purposes of protection of their interests and to avoid prosecution for crimes they might have committed when they were in the office,” avers Timothy Onduru, a political scientist and history lecturer.

Across the continent, outcomes vary. In some countries, ex-presidents enjoy respect and protection. In others, weak institutions and political expediency mean trials, exile, or even assassination.

Own succession

Joseph Kabila, 54, ruled mineral-rich Congo for 18 years after the assassination of his father in 2001. His presidency began with hope but ended in turmoil.

He attempted to manage his own succession, striking a last-minute deal with President Felix Tshisekedi after his preferred candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary failed to win the popular mandate in the 2019 elections, which he delayed, sparking violent protests.

“Outgoing presidents try to install their favourites, but once in the seat, the proxy becomes his own man. The problem for the former president is staying out of the political fray,” observed Macharia Munene, an expert in International Relations.

By 2023, Kabila had slipped into self-imposed exile after being accused of backing the M23 rebels in eastern DRC. He returned in 2025 to rebel-held areas, but his exact whereabouts remain unknown.

Dr Onduru warns that Kabila’s sentence could destabilise the country. “The death sentence may cause political instability that can degenerate into a civil war.

“It is just another episode in the tragedy that is the DRC that goes back to the assassination of former Prime Minister Patrice Lumumba. It makes peace in DRC difficult to achieve,” added Prof Munene.

Ali Bongo, who ruled Gabon from 2009 until 2023, was ousted after winning a disputed election that would have extended his family’s 55-year grip on power. Placed under house arrest, he watched as his wife and other family members were accused of embezzlement. Today, they live in exile in Angola.

Bongo is hardly alone. Niger, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Sudan have all experienced coups in recent years, leaving former rulers in prison, exile, or permanent political limbo.

In Malawi, a country with a long record of prosecuting ex-presidents, voters recently returned Peter Mutharika, 85, to power after he defeated incumbent Lazarus Chakwera last month.

Whether Mutharika will seek vengeance remains uncertain. Chakwera’s defeat was largely blamed on economic mismanagement.

Mutharika himself once faced treason charges for allegedly trying to block Joyce Banda’s rise to the presidency. Chakwera’s administration later accused him of corruption.

Malawi’s founding president, Hastings Kamuzu Banda, was placed under house arrest in 1994 and charged with the murder of four political rivals. His successor, Bakili Muluzi, was arrested in 2005 on corruption charges.

The nation’s only woman President, Joyce Banda, fled the country in 2014 after being implicated in a corruption scandal, returning in 2018, a year after the charges were dropped.

Still, experts say Chakwera could rebound.

“Mutharika is older, and his comeback was unexpected; Chakwera may face different constraints. The political landscape may have shifted. Let’s not forget about Gen Z changing things globally,” warns Nerima Wako, the Executive Director at Siasa Place.

While many presidents have suffered the wrath of an angry electorate in elections, a few have been brought back from political oblivion by the voters. Ghana’s John Mahama is a rare exception.

A former vice president, Mahama, who first assumed office in 2012 after the death of his predecessor, lost in 2016 and again in 2020 amid corruption allegations. Yet, discontent over Ghana’s economic crisis paved the way for his return in December 2024.

Unlike many former presidents, Mahama avoided prosecution, though his political career was scarred by scandal. His comeback shows how shifting public sentiment can occasionally favour the ousted.

In South Africa, former President Jacob Zuma is fighting for political survival. Forced to resign in 2018 over corruption scandals involving the Gupta family, Zuma has reinvented himself as a populist rival to his successor, Cyril Ramaphosa.

Zuma continues to divide his time between courtrooms and political rallies, showing how some former presidents remain central players long after leaving office.

Botswana is arguably one of the notable models of democracy on the continent.

After losing the 2024 election, former President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat and handed power peacefully to Duma Boko of the opposition. Masisi, who also stepped down as party leader, now lives a quiet life. His only political storm came from his predecessor, Ian Khama, with whom he feuded bitterly.

Despite being an heir to a political dynasty, whose influence was fast falling, Khama was charged with money laundering and illegal possession of firearms before the charges were dropped last year.

One of the greatest political feuds on the continent is playing out in Zambia between President Hakainde Hichilema and his predecessor, Edgar Lungu.

Hichilema was imprisoned in 2017 on treason charges under Edgar Lungu’s administration. It took the intervention of international actors to end his jailing after 100 days.

Four years later, he defeated Lungu at the ballot.

When Lungu attempted a political comeback in 2023, his retirement benefits were revoked under a law barring former presidents from active politics.

Lungu died in June 2025 in South Africa. A bitter dispute between his family and the government over his burial site is still unresolved.