Why Kindiki, Mudavadi are facing 2027 litmus test

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi are under mounting pressure to deliver victory for the ruling UDA party in the upcoming by-elections in Mbeere North and Malava constituencies, scheduled for November.

The stakes are particularly high for both leaders, who are seen to be quietly positioning themselves as potential running mates for President William Ruto in the 2027 General Election.

Kindiki has pitched camp in Mbeere North, frequently accompanied by Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku—the immediate former MP of the area—who is campaigning for UDA candidate Leonard Muriuki.

The two have promised residents a slew of development projects, including roads, electrification, markets, piped water, and dams, should they back the ruling party’s nominee.

However, they face stiff resistance from a formidable alliance led by former Attorney General Justin Muturi and ex-Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

The duo is backing Newton Kariuki of the Democratic Party (DP), making the Mbeere race a high-stakes showdown with national implications.

This week, Gachagua, who leads the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), further stirred the political pot by unveiling Stanley Kenga as the party’s candidate for the Magarini constituency by-election in Kilifi County.

Kenga had initially been assured the UDA ticket after a meeting with Secretary General Hassan Omar at the party’s headquarters in Nairobi. However, UDA later dropped him, allegedly in the spirit of promoting harmony within the UDA-ODM partnership, after the latter party insisted on retaining the seat.

Mt Kenya stand

Kenga had successfully challenged ODM’s Harrison Kombe’s narrow 21-vote victory in the 2022 General Election and won at all three superior courts. In the resulting discontent, Gachagua swooped in and handed Kenga the DCP ticket—setting the stage for a fierce contest that could embarrass key coastal politicians.

“The Mbeere by-election will test whether the Mountain has shifted or not,” political analyst Martin Andati says. “It’s a significant moment for both Muturi and Gachagua, but the real pressure is on Kindiki and Ruku.”

He adds that failure by Kindiki to deliver the Mbeere seat could give President Ruto reason to consider replacing him in the 2027 campaign team.

Kindiki recently hosted thousands of women in the constituency at an empowerment forum, where millions of shillings were disbursed, followed by rallies with youth and boda boda riders to galvanise UDA’s support base in Mt Kenya.

The Mbeere North by-election, set for 27 November, follows the appointment of Ruku as Cabinet Secretary for Public Service and Human Capital Development. He succeeded Muturi, who decamped to the opposition citing concerns over corruption, abductions by police, and human rights violations.

In Western Kenya, Mudavadi is also facing a political litmus test in Malava, where internal divisions threaten to cost the seat.

While ODM has historically performed well in the region, the rise of Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya’s Tawe Movement under DAP-K is reshaping Western politics.

ODM suffered a blow this week when their preferred candidate for the Kisa East ward by-election rejected the nomination and returned to DAP-K, despite earlier defecting with fanfare at Chungwa House.

The Malava contest is particularly critical. The candidate who ran on an ODM ticket in 2022 has now defected to Godfrey Kanoti’s Democratic National Alliance (DNA), signalling waning loyalty to ODM in the region.

Analysts are also closely watching developments in Kasipul, where ODM is expected to retain the seat following the murder of MP Charles Ong’ondo Were in Nairobi earlier this year. The party has fronted his son, Boyd Were, as its candidate. However, he faces competition from Philip Aroko, an independent candidate who had previously been linked to the MP’s death but was acquitted.

“Aroko knew ODM leaders in Homa Bay would frustrate his bid for the ticket,” says Andati. “Running as an independent gives him a fighting chance. But ODM will throw everything into this race, and it could turn chaotic like previous primaries.”

Malala factor

Back in Malava, Mudavadi is banking on a DCP candidate sponsored by party deputy leader Cleophas Malala to divide the opposition vote. Unlike in Mbeere—where Gachagua stepped aside to allow Muturi’s DP to field a candidate—Malala has insisted on flying the DCP flag.

The former Kakamega Senator is reportedly trying to assert himself as the face of the opposition in the county.

However, Governor Natembeya has criticised the move, arguing that the opposition should have rallied behind DAP-K candidate Seth Panyako, the Kenya National Union of Nurses (KNUN) secretary general.

“Malala’s candidate is very weak and may not even get 3,000 votes,” says Andati. “There’s speculation that some forces in government may be backing Malala to split the opposition vote.”

Some suggest Malala’s motivation is less about winning and more about proving that DCP has political weight in the region.

Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale had initially stayed neutral but has since thrown his weight behind Panyako, accusing UDA of voter bribery and Ruto’s aide, Farouk Kibet, of interfering in local politics. Kibet has reportedly made over 20 visits to the constituency for fundraisers and by-election campaigns.

“President Ruto promised us development, not political confusion,” said Khalwale. “We will not allow this DCP outfit to disrupt our region.”

With tensions rising across Mbeere, Malava, Kasipul, and Magarini, political observers have described the by-elections as a “mini General Election”—a critical test not only for President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza alliance but also for the opposition’s ability to maintain unity and relevance.

How these races play out could shape the political realignments leading into the 2027 election—and determine who truly holds sway in Mt Kenya, Western, the Coast and Nyanza regions.