Why Kindiki and Mudavadi's bargaining power is on trial

Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s quest to become President William Ruto’s running mate in 2027 could be swayed by two by-elections in Malava and Mbeere North scheduled for November 27.

The two political giants have pitched a tent in respective constituencies, leading Kenya Kwanza troops to mobilise grassroots support for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidates.

While Kindiki has convinced seven aspirants in Mbeere North to back Leornard Muthende, the consensus card failed in Malava and the aspirants will square it out on September 20 primaries. The aspirants include Simon Kangwana Chimuche, Ryan Injendi Malulu, David Ndakwa and Leonard Lipala Shimaka.

President Ruto has stayed away from the by-elections, leaving his Deputy and Prime CS to face off with opposition leaders in what political pundits believe is a litmus test for the duo.

Both are keen on clinching the deputy president’s slot position which was left vacant in November last year following Rigathi Gachagua’s impeachment.

Luhya leaders lobbied to have Mudavadi succeed Gachagua even as the Prime Cabinet Secretary played high profile behind the curtains strategy to have Ruto pick him as his second in command but eventually Kindiki was picked as a bait to protect the voter rich Mt Kenya region due to what political players said was because of a political pact before the 2022 elections.

With the 2027 General Election fast approaching and the disgruntlement of Gachagua’s impeachment, Mudavadi’s win would mean Kindiki’s noma si noma and fire si fire political gymnastics have failed to gain traction and Mt Kenya is gone while he would stamp his authority as the de facto leader in Western ripe to become the second in command.

Kindiki’s win however would reduce Gachagua and silence his pride as the region’s spokesperson and cutting short his political influence with his Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP).

Mbeere North’s proximity to Tharaka Nithi County gives Kindiki hope to use his influence and warmth of his position to trump the opposition even as political pundits maintain that while Kindiki is only a national face, intrigues in the region pits Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruuku against his successor Justin Muturi on the battle for leadership of Mbeere region.

Muturi who is leaning towards the opposition, has joined hands with Lenny Kivuti for a joint candidate Newton Kariuki alias Newton Karish who is MCA for Mumenje Ward elected on a Democratic Empowerment Party (DEP) headed by Kivuti. But Karish will be vying using the DP ticket.

Gachagua’s DCP has been forced to withdraw its candidate Dancan Mbui and Independent MCA for Evurore ward serving for his third term and who have vowed to go it alone.

According to Prof John Mwaruvie, associate professor of history at Karatina University and hails from Mbeere North, clannism in the constituency will play a role in the upcoming by-election where the winner will determine who will be the leader of Mbeere people.

“Muturi hails from Ndamata Irumbi clan while Ruuku and Kivuitu hails from Thagara clan but other influential leaders from Muturi’s clan but are supporting the government include former MP Muriuki Njagagua (chairperson for Board of Directors of Consolidated Bank Limited), former and current Speaker of Embu County Assembly Speakers Kariuki Mate and Josiah Thiriku among others,” Mwaruvie noted.

According to Mwaruvie, the UDA candidate is a new comer in politics but has the backing of influential leaders and government loyalists while Mbui who was dropped by DCP in favour of Karish hails from the most populous Ward with 28,000 votes noting that if he continues with his ambitions it might a major blow to the Opposition.

“The argument is that if the dominant vote from Evurore Ward is spread, and then gives some of those votes to the new UDA candidate, definitely the party will have a feel of the day. But if this independent candidate goes it alone, he might have 20,000 or 28,000 votes. You see, he has been an MP, this would have been his 17th year,” noted Mwaruvie.

Dr Fridah Karani, a lecturer from Embu University, believes clan dynamics and the leaders’ influence will play a role in the Mbeere North by election as she opines that should the government side wins, Kindiki will be seen as the ultimate winner despite the local intrigues.

“Mbeere North’s proximity to Tharaka Nithi, the home of Kindiki gives the DP the pressure to deliver the win to the President while the fall out between Ruuku and Muturi may accelerate the intrigues and force Muturi to make a political statement to Ruuku as he mentored and bankrolled him to become the only MP sponsored by the DP in Kenya,” she noted.

For Mudavadi, Prof Mwaruvie maintains that his defeat would render him redundant in the Kenya Kwanza administration and because he dissolved his ANC party, he will have no bargaining power left to negotiate for positions and resources in the government especially in the 2027.

“His win would mean he has political capital and his loss could dent his influence and diminish his currency in the Kenya Kwanza alliance given that MPs elected on the defunct ANC can have their allegiance shifted by the emerging parties like DCP which poses a major threat in the area,” he said.

To consolidate support, Mudavadi has  urged the locals to elect the UDA candidate as he maintained that just in case nobody was expected to beat Raila in Nyanza, the Western region should elect the candidate he was fronting.

“Without mincing my words, do you think there is anyone who will beat Tinga [Raila] in Ugunja and Kasipul? Will it happen? Why, then, do you want to bring somebody else to disturb us here in Malava?”

But the Prime CS is supporting the UDA candidate without the local backing, especially Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale who has declared he will not back a particular candidate.

DCP Deputy Party leader Cleophas Malala who hails from Kakamega is also campaigning for DCP candidate Edgar Busiega while castigating Mudavadi for folding his party and allegedly failing to push for the development form the government.

Mudavadi folded his party, Amani National Congress in February this year, a move that saw the former party’s officials being incorporated into the UDA leadership.