Somalia enters unchartered waters as election disputes intensify

Somalia is entering one of the most politically volatile periods in recent memory as tensions escalate between the Federal Government and several Federal Member States ahead of the planned 2026 elections.

A series of sudden and dramatic developments in recent weeks has sparked fears of a widening constitutional crisis that threatens to fracture the country’s fragile federal system and undermine security in the capital.

At the center of the escalating standoff is the Federal Government’s push to transition Somalia to a one-person-one-vote electoral model, replacing the long-standing clan-based system. The first phase of voter registration was launched early this year in the Mogadishu (Banaadir region), marking a symbolic step towards universal suffrage.

But instead of rallying national unity behind long-awaited democratic reforms, the rollout has deepened mistrust and inflamed political tensions across the country.

Opposition leaders, former presidents and several Federal Member States have sharply criticised the electoral roadmap, accusing the government of pushing ahead without the broad national consensus required for such a major political transformation.

The Somali Future Council (SFC), a new coalition of political figures, accused President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of attempting to engineer an electoral framework designed to concentrate authority in the presidency at the expense of the federal system.

The crisis escalated further when Jubbaland announced it was withdrawing from federal agreements and moving to establish an autonomous administration. Officials in Kismayo accused the Federal Government of political interference and undermining regional autonomy, claims Mogadishu denies. The move has pushed relations between the two layers governments to their most strained point in years.

Attempts to mend ties between the Federal Government and key states, specifically Puntland and Jubbaland, have largely collapsed. Both sides continue to trade accusations of obstruction, political overreach, and refusal to compromise, leaving the country in a deepening political deadlock.

Jubbaland is set to return to the national spotlight next week as Kismayo prepares to host a high-stakes gathering of Somalia’s most prominent opposition leaders on December 17, a meeting many see as a critical moment for the country’s political future.

The upcoming conference aims to forge a unified political vision for Somalia’s opposition forces, centered on elections and the country’s democratic trajectory. At the heart of the agenda is a push to agree on a viable, fair, and genuinely inclusive electoral framework, one that restores public confidence, prevents unilateral decision-making, and reflects the will of the Somali people.

Meanwhile, critics accuse the Federal Government of centralising power through questionable constitutional amendments that significantly expand presidential authority.

The political standoff has already spilled into the streets. By late September of 2025, clashes erupted in Mogadishu between government security forces and guards aligned with opposition figures. While each side blames the other for provoking the confrontation, the incident has heightened fears of broader unrest in the capital.

Adding to the growing concerns, former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed warned in a recent interview with BBC Somali that the country is unprepared for a one-person-one-vote election. He cited institutional weaknesses, security vulnerabilities and logistical challenges, saying that pushing ahead under current conditions risks undermining the credibility and legitimacy of the entire process.

Meanwhile, the National Independent Electoral Commission (NIEC) confirmed that multiple political parties have already submitted their candidate lists, highlighting the momentum behind the elections. The commission has scheduled the Banadir District Council elections for Christmas Day, December 25, 2025, signaling its resolve to move forward despite deepening political tensions.

Security analysts including the International Crisis Group have warned that the ongoing political turmoil is creating opportunities for Al-Shabaab. In recent weeks, the group has intensified attacks on the outskirts of Mogadishu. With national attention consumed by political infighting, experts fear that the progress made against the militant group over the past two years could begin to unravel.

Observers say the escalating rhetoric and legal confrontations reflect a profound breakdown in trust between all levels of government. The deepening uncertainty threatens to worsen security concerns, stall governance, and destabilize the political environment ahead of the elections.

Somalia’s 2026 elections have evolved far beyond a routine administrative exercise. They now represent a defining battle over the future of the Somali state, its identity, the balance of power within it, and the fundamental question of how the nation should be governed.

With only weeks remaining before the scheduled vote, the stakes are rising. Many ordinary Somali citizens fear that continued political paralysis could drag the country back into instability at a time when security, economic hardship, and humanitarian needs remain acute.

As political temperatures continue to rise, the coming weeks may determine whether Somalia moves toward a more unified electoral vision, or sinks deeper into a multi-layered national crisis.

David Okwembah is a journalist who comments on Somalia affairs while Fowzia Mohamoud is an independent consultant in Somalia