Kenya's diplomacy clouded by foreign supply routes for RSF

In some of the strongest language yet, the US has said that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) waging war in Sudan are entirely dependent on foreign backers for their weapons, with a top official stating that the group “doesn’t have manufacturing capabilities” and that arms are “coming through some country.”

While US Secretary of State Marco Rubio did not publicly name Kenya during a press conference at the G7 Foreign Ministers’ meeting in Niagara, Canada, on Wednesday, his remarks intensified the spotlight on a series of independent investigations that have directly implicated Kenyan territory as a key conduit for the weapons pipeline he described.

“Someone’s giving them the money and someone’s giving them the weapon, and it’s coming through some country. And we know who they are,” Rubio stated without explicitly naming the countries involved.

He emphasised that the solution required addressing the fact that weapons are “also coming from countries that are allowing their territory to be used to ship it and transport it.”

Mounting evidence

This public focus from the world’s leading diplomatic forum solidified a growing body of evidence that has, in recent months, put Kenya at the heart of the arms supply chain. A six-month investigation by the open-source intelligence group Bellingcat, published in June, uncovered video evidence of weapons crates marked “KENYA” inside an allegedly captured RSF arms cache in Omdurman, Sudan. This visual evidence, combined with flight-tracking data showing suspicious aircraft movements between Nairobi and conflict zones, placed Kenya at the centre of an international controversy.

At the G7 meeting in Niagara, Ontario, on Wednesday, a communiqué from the group condemned escalating violence by the RSF, including attacks “often ethnically-motivated, by the Rapid Support Forces … against unarmed civilians and aid workers.” The statement flagged the famine, mass displacement, and sexual violence unleashed in North Kordofan and Darfur. The G7 called on external actors to contribute to peace – a clear reference to nations supplying the belligerents. This diplomatic push comes as the conflict has created what Secretary Rubio described as a “horrifying” humanitarian crisis in Sudan.

The most chilling assessment from the Secretary concerned the scale of human suffering. He revealed that humanitarian organisations “anticipated receiving thousands of refugees, and they didn’t.” The grim conclusion, he stated, is that “they’re either dead or because they’re so sick and so famished that they can’t move.”

This catastrophe, he argued, is sustained by a constant flow of foreign arms to the RSF. “They are committing acts of sexual violence and atrocities, just horrifying atrocities, against women, children, innocent civilians of the most horrific kind, and it needs to end immediately” Rubio said.

“We’re very concerned. Something needs to be done to cut off the weapons and the support that the RSF is getting as they continue with their advances,” Rubio told reporters.

Regional dynamics

His comments come as US and international analysts shift focus from the fighting inside Sudan to the wider mechanics sustaining it: the millions of dollars, illicit arms shipments, drone transfers, and supply-chain networks that undergird the conflict.

While the UAE and Iran have long been under suspicion for arming the RSF, recent media investigations suggest Kenya is being used as a transit point.

In May 2025, the Sudanese army accused Kenya of being “one of the main conduits of the Emirati military supplies to the terrorist RSF militia,” claiming Kenyan-labelled arms were found in RSF caches in Khartoum.

The evidence on the ground appeared to directly contradict Kenya’s public posture as a neutral peace broker.

President William Ruto has been actively involved in regional mediation efforts through the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad). However, this diplomatic role has been severely complicated by the RSF leader’s visit to Nairobi and the subsequent weapons findings.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on November 9, President Ruto defended the reported presence of RSF representatives in Nairobi, saying such meetings were a result of Kenya’s “democratic” space that allows people from across the region to gather and discuss their countries freely.

When pressed on accusations that Kenya was being used as a weapons transit route, Ruto dismissed as “absolutely false” allegations that his government is involved in supplying arms to Sudan’s RSF in collaboration with the UAE.

“Kenya is a great democratic country. We are the only place in East and Central Africa where people can meet freely – from civil society, church groups, Muslim leaders, and women – to discuss their countries, including Sudan,” Ruto said, defending Kenya’s role as a neutral meeting ground.

He added that such gatherings are not State-orchestrated, noting, “Sometimes I don’t even know they are meeting in Nairobi because we are a free and democratic country. Similar meetings have been held in Tripoli and Addis Ababa.”

Transit allegations

But while Ruto framed Kenya as a hub of open dialogue, investigations paint a far more complex picture. A June Bellingcat report traced Kenyan-marked crates – later found in an RSF warehouse – to 14.5×114 mm cartridges and Chinese-made HE PP87 mortar bombs, munitions not produced by Kenya’s own ordnance factories.

The findings suggest Kenya’s role may not be as a manufacturer, but as a transit corridor in a larger multinational arms network that UN experts and security analysts believe originates in the United Arab Emirates.

When confronted with this evidence, Kenya’s Ministry of Defence provided a response that did little to clarify the situation.

“Upon examination of the photographs provided, we wish to state that we do not recognise the crates nor the inscriptions on them,” the Ministry stated.

Notably, the statement did not address whether Kenya has facilitated the import, transit, or diversion of third-country weapons, leaving the central allegation unanswered.

The weapons flowing into Sudan are exacerbating a parallel crisis of governance in neighbouring South Sudan, which was the subject of a separate, scathing US rebuke at the UN Security Council on November 11, in New York.

Governance failures

Ambassador Jennifer Locetta, Representative for Special Political Affairs, warned that “South Sudan was on the brink of a renewed, large-scale civil war,” accusing the transitional government of failing its people. “Rather than using public revenue to improve the lives of its citizens, South Sudan’s leaders have instead prioritised personal enrichment,” she said.

She highlighted the stark disconnect between the country’s vast natural-resource wealth and the suffering of its population, noting that “humanitarian needs today are at an all-time high, despite Sh3.2 trillion (US$25 billion) in oil revenue since its independence in 2011.”

Locetta painted a picture of a government undermining stability, citing the seizure of food aid by security forces and the imposition of “extralegal fees” that make South Sudan “one of the most difficult and dangerous places in the world to deliver assistance.”

She urged fundamental reforms, arguing that progress on corruption, economic reconstruction, and social welfare is essential to restoring confidence in the transitional government’s commitment to peace and reconciliation.

International pressure

The US approach has been dual-track: backing diplomatic efforts while imposing sanctions on foreign backers and working quietly with regional partners to sever RSF supply lines. Rubio said the US has been engaged since mid-2024 in the “Quad” process – with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others – to map and block external support to the RSF.

Combined with G7 pressure and emerging evidence, this places the Kenyan government in an increasingly untenable position.

Rubio stressed that private diplomacy remains the preferred path but warned that US patience is limited.

“We’re not going to let the Quad process be a shield that people hide behind,” he cautioned.

Security analysts say Kenya must urgently explain how crates marked with its identifiers were found in an RSF warehouse. They argue Nairobi needs tighter airport and border controls to prevent its territory being used as a weapons corridor.

With mounting evidence and a deteriorating humanitarian situation, they predict that quiet inquiries will soon become public demands, threatening Kenya’s credibility and regional leadership. The US has already stated the weapons fuelling Sudan’s conflict “are coming from somewhere,” and several intelligence assessments now trace part of that trail back to Kenyan soil.

The writer is an independent investigative journalist.