Why Matiang'i will most likely be Ruto's running mate in 2027

Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party is no longer merely participating in opposition politics; it is actively contesting the soul of it. The recent claim by Jubilee Party Secretary General Jeremiah that Rigathi Gachagua is bullying Fred Matiang’i and sidelining him during opposition meetings signals a strategic distancing. Jubilee is unlikely to align with Mr Gachagua in 2027, and the reasons are becoming increasingly visible.

This realignment began to crystallise during the National Delegates Congress of the United Opposition where Martha Karua was unveiled as the presidential flag-bearer for the People’s Liberation Party. On the same day, Jubilee held a parallel Annual Delegates Conference.

Dr Matiang’i was conspicuously absent from the opposition fold. Ms Karua, delivering an apology on behalf of Matiang'i, said that “he (Matiang'i) is being painted red”. That metaphor was telling. It marked the beginning of a supremacy contest between Uhuru’s Jubilee and the broader opposition coalition.

There is another twist to this political matrix. To understand politics, one must understand its past, its present, and the relationships that thread them together. Only then can one predict its future. The past does not reveal a cordial relationship between Uhuru and Karua. I have said it before, and I will say it again: Uhuru distanced himself from Raila Odinga the moment Karua was named Raila’s running mate under Azimio toward 2022.

As we speak, the only figure within the United Opposition for whom Uhuru has a political soft spot is Kalonzo Musyoka. This brings us to a critical fork in the road. Uhuru has two options in the coming elections: Either support Ruto or align with the Opposition.

If he chooses neither, he and his family risk political extinction. Period. Between the two, he is more likely to support Ruto, not out of loyalty, but out of strategic necessity. Yet he cannot do so directly. His influence must be infused through a proxy, and the shortest and most effective route is through Matiang’i. The other route would be through Kalonzo, but that’s a story for another day.

There’s another layer to this theory: Raila, the Azimio la Umoja leader whom Uhuru and Matiang’i laboured to crown in 2022, is now in government. If Raila is in government, then so is the coalition that backed him.

Therefore, Uhuru and Matiang’i, by extension, remain tethered to the Kenya Kwanza government, not as outsiders, but as architects.

Note that Uhuru has never been against the system. He was born in it, raised by it, and remains encoded in its DNA. As Mount Kenya’s de facto kingpin, he cannot afford to stay outside the power matrix for long. He understands that Ruto, despite their political divergence, is a product of the same machinery. Supporting Ruto for a second term would not be betrayal but strategic for Uhuru.

Matiang’i, like Uhuru, is also of the system. He was moulded by it, elevated through it, and can only be sustained within it. That makes him a strategic asset, not just for Uhuru, but also for Raila.

In 2027, the choice of Ruto’s running mate will not be made in isolation. It will be a negotiation, and Raila and Uhuru will have a decisive say. The shortlist is already forming: Kalonzo or Matiang’i. And Matiang’i, therefore, becomes the compromise candidate for both Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila.

For the electorate, the 2027 contest may appear to be about removing Ruto. But for Kenya’s political gods, the game is more nuanced. Their chessboard is not about who forms government, but about who assures them power.

They understand that power is fungible. It is not the identity of the State House occupant that matters, but the continuity of influence. That is why Raila, and by extension, Uhuru, are less concerned with opposition theatrics and more focused on securing control and safeguarding their interests after the 2027 government is formed.

Dr Ndonye is Dean of Kabarak University’s School of Music and Media