Why President Ruto is now a very happy man

William S Ruto seems presently to be politically happy, happier than he was some weeks ago. It is not because he has acquired enough new wealth to put him in the top bracket, the billionaires club, or has contributed new knowledge to botany. He is happy because his domestic political rivals are in stages of advanced confusion while his UDA and ODM cheer leaders appear to be on the upswing. His concern is on whether the UDA/ODM union can be sustained, without prominent players defecting to other parties that seem solid.

President Ruto and his UDA/ODM political contingency are recovering from a down period in which they looked desperate. They had no idea of how to deal with Rigathi Gachagua alias Wamunyoro whose oratory skills appear unmatched. Gachagua comes close to Jomo Kenyatta and Tom Mboya in oratorical skills and has a special gift of coining populistic slogans. It is to Gachagua that the public owes the ‘wantam’ slogan, meaning one term for Ruto, reinforced by ‘cousins’ that spread throughout the country. A ‘cousin’ is anyone who agrees with Gachagua.

Finding himself repeatedly confronted by ‘wantan’ slogan wherever he went, Ruto’s team appeared to panic as it strategised on appropriate responses. Having weathered the 2024 Gen Z uprising, some invented ‘tutam’, meaning two terms for Ruto, and mounted ‘empowerment rallies’ led by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki to dish out political goodies. Prof Kindiki became combative to discard the Gachagua promoted label of ‘soprano’ and ‘yes sir’. A few women added sexual flavours to the ‘tutam’ chant.

Nominated MP Sabina Chege, for instance, was graphic in explaining that since the ‘utamu’ or pleasure was in being ‘ndani’, (inside the government rather than out), Kenyans should be "ndani, ndani, ndani". In doing so, she had the support of Farouk Kibet, the gate keeper to William Ruto who, despite not having an official government position, reportedly sanctions who does or does not meet Ruto.

There was more to the Ruto comeback than the tutam chant and the Kindiki-Farouk empowerment rallies. He enjoyed the unwavering support of Raila Amolo Odinga and his ODM party which at times seemed to be split. Although occasionally big ODM players like James Orengo, Babu Owino, and Edwin Sifuna made statements that created the impression of friction within the party, the mainstream was happy that ODM was ‘eating’ in Ruto’s ‘broad-based’ political ranch. Whatever direction Raila tells ODM to go, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga declared, they will go unquestioningly. The present Raila-approved direction leads to Ruto in 2027.

The broad-based government has also been defended on the Internet where interesting X platforms give room for debates, with regular participants taking on each other. In one such forum, on the Ruto/Raila broad-based side are such stalwarts as Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei who boasts of his closeness to Ruto and former Knut official Wilson Sossion. The other side has ‘Chairman’ Ndegwa Njiru, a prominent lawyer at the centre of almost every political case, and Professor Fred Ogola whose mission is to defeat Ruto. In between are curious ‘listeners’, some academics, politicians, and various party fanatics who are quick to dismiss others.

The broad-based alliance gains from the growing internal feuds within the opposing side which make it lose its image of unity. Gachagua’s assertiveness, despite the popularity of his ‘wantam’ slogan, loses him support as other leaders reject his claim to lead the Mountain. In response, Gachagua accuses his rivals of being Ruto’s proxies. It also appears that a new Uhuru-Gachagua rivalry has sprouted with the Jubilee Party, almost endorsing Former CS Fred Matiang'i. A Jubilee Party endorsement of Matiang'i is also a blow to Kalonzo Musyoka whose coalition building effort appears shaky. Since each candidate assumes he is president because Ruto has supposedly lost the Malawi way, the internal rivalry intensifies. The assumption makes Ruto happy.