Upcoming by-elections offer big test for stakeholders in 2027 race

The 27th November by-elections have all the signs of a mini general election. Given that our two neighbouring Tanzania and Uganda governments, have provided clear evidence how not to prepare for elections, can Kenyan authorities demonstrate any difference?

Elections are to take place on the same day for 24 seats including senator, National Assembly members and County Assembly Members. They include Baringo County, Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, Mbeere and Ugunja constituencies and 17 wards across 14 of Kenya’s 47 counties. 

The seats fell and have remained vacant for several months following the deaths, court nullifications or appointments of incumbents to other state positions. These by-elections may be the greatest stress test of our electoral eco-system before 2027.

By the end of November, Kenyans will measure voter confidence in the process, the independence and professionalism of the electoral commission and police, the capacity of political parties to deploy agents, and the effectiveness of civic actors in observing and safeguarding electoral integrity.

Tragically, deadly clashes in Kasipul constituency have already led to the death of two people and several injuries among supporters and police officers. The Orange Democratic Movement has publicly reported their right to assembly has been violated on at least two occasions.

Across the country, in Mbeere North, Democracy for the Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua has called for those threatening him to be arrested to no avail. These and other concerns saw the National Police Service issuing a “zero-tolerance for violence or hate speech” statement this week.

Although the Interior Cabinet Secretary skipped the launch of NCIC’s reports on criminal gangs and guidelines for peaceful elections this week, both are critical to address rising political tensions and safeguard electoral integrity. The NCIC criminal gangs report reinforces what the National Crime Research Centre has told us repeatedly. At least 300 organised gangs are operating for hire in the country. They operate with near impunity.

Remember, those media headlines that linked prominent Nairobi politicians to the organised hooliganism during the June 17 protests which claimed the life of vendor Boniface Kariuki? They faded without arrests. It seems, having at least one gang on payroll is critical for how politicians score on “Gangster Index”. Procreated by poverty and economic inequalities, the gangs are easily recruited by police officers, politicians and the powerful. Electoral cycles are the most lucrative seasons for these “casual labourers”.

It remains to be seen whether the report’s recommendations to establish state and non-state actors to address their proliferation and increasing use of both physical and digital spaces to intimidate the opponents of their “contractors” will be acted upon. This was absent in the otherwise strong NPS statement this week.

Human rights principles underpin the other NCIC report. The guidelines call for all barriers to be removed for historically marginalised groups, police human rights standards and training, joint state and non-state rapid response mechanisms to address incitement and disinformation, protection and funding of the electoral commission staff, mass civic education and lastly, prosecution of all who violate Article 81 of the constitution and other related laws.

The report also calls for all candidates and parties to sign anti-violence charters, monitor and sanction member’s misconduct.

We must also pay attention to both the appetite of State Officers led by Cabinet Secretaries to publicly campaign using our taxes and the apathy of young voters. In this regard, the Law Society of Kenya’s suit to bar the use of public resources is in the public interest and must be supported. We must pick up the pace on voter registration. By the end of October, only 90,000 of the targeted registration of 6.3 million voters had registered.

Violent elections and national instability in Tanzania and Uganda clearly highlight the dangers of democratic backsliding. Kenya still has time to act decisively. Our choices now will shape three possible futures: a constitutional election, an auction to the highest bidder, or an insurrection where the majority of 56 million citizens reject the system en masse.