Kenya's climate promise faces big test as 71m tree campaign begins
Health & Science
By
Mactilda Mbenywe
| Oct 10, 2025
Pupils of Mtsangamali Comprehensive School plant indigenous trees in the school compound and neighboring farms in Magarini, Kilifi County, on June, 3, 2025. [File, Standard]
Kenya will mark Mazingira Day with a big promise and an even bigger test planting 71.14 million fruit trees in one day.
The national climate plan promises a 32 per cent cut in emissions by 2030.
The revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) lifts ambition further to a 35 per cent cut for 2031–2035, with a larger domestic share of costs. Ambition is not in doubt. Delivery is.
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More than 90 per cent of Kenya’s electricity now comes from geothermal, hydro, wind and some solar sources with Lake Turkana Wind Power still anchoring the wind fleet.
“Kenya is not just talking; we are walking,” said Principal Secretary for Environment and Climate Change in the Ministry of Environment Festus Ng’eno, calling geothermal a “national model.”
On paper, 100 per cent clean power by 2030 looks plausible. Reality is messier outside the power plants.
Transport plans still revolve around new expressways that invite more private cars. Oil exploration remains on the table.
“You cannot chase a 32 per cent reduction and keep investing in carbon-intensive transport and fossil prospects,” said Fredrick Otieno, an environmental economist and programme officer at Power Shift Africa.
“Shifting serious money to buses, rail and safe streets would cut emissions faster per shilling. But those budgets lag.”
“Overdependence on external funding makes our plans unstable. Of the more than $60 billion needed for our NDC, only about $10.5 billion is from domestic resources,” he said.
“If you can’t fund even half your own plan, you are outsourcing your climate future,” Otieno noted.
Kenyans who spoke to the Standard see the contradictions. “Planting a tree is great, but then a forest is cleared for a highway,” Mary Mwende, a Nairobi resident, said.
As John Kamau noted, “You tell us to buy electric boda bodas, but the bikes are expensive and the power bills are already heavy. Who are these policies for?”
Tree growing is this week’s rallying point. The state set an audacious 15-billion-tree goal by 2032 to reach 30 per cent tree cover.
Campaigns ask schools and communities to plant at scale, some will put 2,000 seedlings in the ground on Mazingira Day alone. Experts warn that “survival at 12 and 36 months” is the only metric that matters.
Patrick Odhiambo, a forester, said, “Pay for aftercare, audits and water harvesting, or accept that a large share will die.”
The Ministry of Education has urged citizens to take responsibility after planting. That is a tacit admission that aftercare and water access remain weak points.
Otieno believes the tree drive risks becoming a “ceremonial act” without sustained financing. “We celebrate seedlings, not survival. Forest ecosystems are excised arbitrarily for developments, while the same government urges citizens to plant more,” he said.
He warned that weak natural resource governance undermines the whole climate agenda.
“Climate action is not isolated from land and water governance. If people can lose forests and land to development, you can’t talk of climate justice.”
John Mwangi, who grows vegetables near Embu, welcomed last year’s distribution.
“The dry season came,” he said. “I had to choose between water for seedlings or my vegetables. The vegetables feed my family.”
In Makueni, Leah Mwikali, a smallholder farmer, said, “The people talk about climate-smart farming, but seeds, water pans, and insurance rarely arrive. We need support that works now, not promises for 2030.”
Kenya estimates it needs roughly $62 billion to meet its 2030 plan, with about 87 per cent expected from external partners. That funding has not arrived at the promised scale.
Treasury head green economy unit Peter Odhengo described the monthly math without ceremony:
“When cash is tight, a hospital today beats an adaptation program that pays off in five years. We face those choices every budget cycle.”
This is why seedlings go unwatered, county nurseries stall, and transmission lines slip. Otieno called this “budgetary schizophrenia.”
“You can’t declare a climate emergency and allocate just Sh128 billion against an annual need of Sh450 billion. Climate action is treated like a side project, not a survival strategy,” he said.
Even in power, delivery details drive credibility and cost. Manufacturers still complain about tariffs and outages. Grid losses were about 23 per cent in 2023, and delayed transmission projects keep the system on the back foot.
Carbon markets add another layer. Kenya now has a legal framework for trading, with rules on approval and benefit sharing.
That can channel new money to counties if contracts, monitoring, and payouts are transparent. Otieno was sceptical.
“Kenya is paving the way for carbon market projects that dispossess communities of their land with unfair benefit-sharing mechanisms,” he said.
“The locals often don’t even know what the projects are about, yet the government is rushing them through.”
He added that the state’s focus on private-sector-led climate action risks commodifying public goods. “Private investors chase profit, not justice. Climate response is a public duty, not a marketplace.”
“Share the project list, publish community revenue as a share of gross, and require free, prior, informed consent,” he said.
“Without that, this will look like extraction with a green label.”
The logging ban protected forests but pushed timber prices up, hitting builders and jobs.
“Intent is not results,” Mark Bett, a Nairobi contractor, said. “If you choke a supply chain, budget for a transition. Train carpenters for alternative materials. Offer credit to sawmills to retool. Otherwise, you just move the pain.”
The Kenya Forest Service estimates Sh 218 billion for 2023–2027. Broader needs run higher. Without stable money for nurseries, fencing, extension, and aftercare, survival rates will lag. Supporters call the tree drive a nation-building moment.
Critics call it a distraction from watershed protection, tenure security and clean cooking.
Experts indicate the practical middle ground is clear: publish survival audits, geotag plantings and tie county money to verified gains.