How will next President govern after seemingly violent 2027 poll?

Does President William Ruto sometimes ask himself how he would rule if, perchance, he secured a second term next year? How would he manage his anger, and above all an angry disillusioned public that believes he has stolen the election?

Indeed, a certain desperation around the Kenyan president suggests that he too probably believes, like the opposition, that he has failed and that getting a second term is impossible.

A confident incumbent does not cut across the country daily, shelling his competitors with angry political invective. He knows his performance speaks for him, and there is no need to live in marketplaces, selling anger.

Nor does he send out his acolytes to tell the world how even the dead will rise up from their graves to vote for him. He does not have teachers in classrooms telling non-indigenous learners in the North Rift not to return to school, if he does not win the election. His MP friends do not threaten to kill and dump people into Suam River if foreigners from Uganda will not be allowed to vote for him.

His ministers do not proclaim that they will open the border for Somalis of Somalia to flow in to vote for him. His politicos do not talk of stuffing ballot boxes, if the votes will not be enough. His friends do not talk of flushing people from under their beds into their graves. His government does not send goons to work with the police to disrupt lawful gatherings.

All these are signs of a regime on the brink of desperation. It is this kind of regime that sends out goons to attack journalists in their place of work, and to accost a legislator in a restaurant. It lines up the public for handouts at its own political gatherings, and speaks like the protector of the electoral and boundaries commission.

One question remains, however. If through these efforts, and more, President Ruto should survive next year’s poll, what country would he rule? The president is a consumer of the best possible intelligence. If what I hear in the small kiosks and sundry eateries that I visit in Korogocho, Kangemi and Kawangware is anything to go by, things look bleak for William Ruto.

And I have been to public houses in Vihiga and Kakamega, as well as those in Nakuru, Kisii, Naivasha, and Bungoma. It is gloomy. Admittedly, I must do more homework before saying the very last word. Yet, even in five star places, the talk is the same. Ruto must go. And I am not the one saying these things. I am only reporting.

Apart from pockets in Kisumu and Siaya, it is difficult to find any significant numbers of people who believe in this presidency, and who talk about a second term. Accordingly, therefore, how do you govern a country that has rejected you? How, especially, do you govern a population you have been telling that you will steal the election?

Even if we should assume that President Ruto gets fairly elected, has his camp already muddied the waters with the thought that they intend to steal the election? How will the electorate tell that the election was not stolen? And if the perception is that the will of the people was violated, how will President Ruto pacify and lead a massive angry electorate?

Ten months to the General Election, Kenya is steadily assuming the character of a country preparing to go to war against itself. The virulent campaigns are visibly violent; in language, message and activity. President Ruto is himself in the driver’s seat. Election victory looks like the end of history. There appears to be little thought on what happens on the day after the declaration of winners.

Constitutional entities like the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) and the Kenya Police appear to have already lost the script. So, too, is the Office of Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP). They all appear to be performing a specific mission.

ORPP’s handling of the Linda Mwananchi registration application is disgraceful, to say the very least. IEBC’s attitude in the face of electoral theft promises by State agents is deplorable.

NCIC’s selective handling of “hate speech” is scandalous. And the police handling of public assembly has been, until only a few weeks ago, deplorable. But they seem to be changing, we don’t know for how long. In all, however, Kenya seems to be building towards a very violent climax. How will anyone rule after August next year?

-Dr Muluka is a strategic communications adviser. www.barrackmuluka.co.ke