How confusion in opposition guarantees Ruto's comeback

ODM's reaffirmation of a deal that culminated in the broad-based government solidified President William Ruto’s 2027 re-election chances. 'Tutam' is not a mere possibility, it is a probability as 'Wantam' slogans gradually capsize. 

The latter are confronted by a fate similar to that of the hyped Titanic, a British luxurious ship that sank in the North Atlantic Ocean on April 14, 1912 after hitting an iceberg on its maiden voyage. The irony is that builders of the ship had averred it was unsinkable. 

Dr Ruto is poised for a win in 2027 riding on the crest of a strategy that a bumbling opposition is inadvertently helping to piece together through hubris, avarice, lack of a shared ideology, self-aggrandisement and tribal mistrust. 

Add to that Speaker Moses Wetangula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi's infantile assurance to the Mulembe nation that Ruto will pass the baton to a Luhya president in 2032, and the Luo leaders’ weird hope that Ruto will step down for Raila in 2027. 

June 25, 2024 marked Ruto’s most vulnerable moment when he was arm-twisted into discarding the Finance Bill 2024 and disbanding his Cabinet. A little more push by Gen Z and the Opposition, and he would most likely have capitulated. However, the vulture in ODM saw a feast and waltzed in, reminding us of the story of 'The vulture and the little boy'. 

Photographer Kevin Carter touched the hearts of many with a photo he took in South Sudan in 1993 showing a vulture waiting patiently behind a frail boy who had collapsed from hunger while attempting to reach a United Nations' feeding centre. The vulture’s patience did not pay, the boy survived.

With ODM eating out of Kenya Kwanza’s hand, it's unlikely to field a presidential candidate in 2027 as part of a deal through which it supports Ruto’s incumbency and second term candidature. 

Raila's calculation might have been to take advantage of a beleaguered Kenya Kwanza to get it to self-immolate, but he didn't reckon with Ruto’s cunning. The alluring CS positions were a poisoned chalice. The ailing Treasury docket, especially, has handed ODM enough rope to hang itself.

Last week, former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua claimed Ruto confided in him that he was out to manage Raila by deigning to work with him. Evidently, he has done a good job. ODM has become a drowsy bulldog lazing on the doormat . 

Even as opinion polls show much is headed South and the economy is asphyxiated, ODM can't raise its voice because it shoulders responsibility for nursing it back to good health, yet doesn't seem equal to the task. 

And after ODM did a number on Azimio la Umoja, the latter went into a coma and ODM killed its own mojo. A weakened, disjointed opposition has since been running around, completely bemused. Nothing concrete that promises any real change has come out of it. Sloganeering has become its forte while individual presidential hopefuls still bank on tribal arithmetic to win. 

The Opposition’s befuddlement is amplified by old geezers stuck in a time warp circa 1980. When ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna questioned the broad-based government deal, Oburu Odinga, Francis Atwoli and ODM automatons came out guns blazing. 

Oburu accused Sifuna of advancing the interests of Gachagua, which speaks of a uniquely Kenyan trait that points at intellectual laziness in the face of challenges. Francis Atwoli tried to berate Sifuna but was forced to retract his criticism by the massive crowd that heckled him. 

Oburu can be forgiven. He has spent all his adult life advancing the interests of Raila. He is conditioned to believe life revolves around Raila and relevance lies in advancing Raila's interests without interrogating them.

Atwoli is the least qualified person to lecture Kenyans on political etiquette and who will, or won't become president. He told us Ruto would never become president, and even coined the "kateni miti Sugoi" refrain. Today Ruto is the President. 

The conduct of the Opposition points to an outfit that lacks pep to do the job, one that banks on the youth demographic and its energy, yet is at a loss to harness it.